* Unlock Trend Found *

[sokO]

**WARNING: The following thread (this one) contains information with the new weapon distribution system. This is not up for argument, but discussion. This was created to answer questions regarding the update. NOT for personal opinions on the update.**

http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showthread.php?t=880668

After some testing with some other folk over on a different forum, it's seem we've (at least) found the time intervals for the unlock system, and a basic understanding of the probability involved.

It appears that the system will record how much time you've played so it can seem to cause deviations if you check timestamps either in game or in one of the idling programs, but the consensus is that it WILL 'roll' for an unlock every 25 minutes.

With this, you can predict the times you MIGHT get an unlock fairly accurately, though probability hasn't been hammered down. Though currently, there's only one person in the samples who has gone over 125 minutes (2h+) without an unlock.

Most of the numbers we've gotten have shown an unlock normally after 50 minutes of time connected to VAC or whatever the server is. Of an initial sample size of 32 unlocks, we had the following trends:

4 25 minutes
16 50 minutes
2 75 minutes
7 100 minutes
2 125 minutes
1 125+ minutes

It seems that if you make it to an hour of play there is a high chance you will get an unlock, and for the few who made it past 75 minutes without an unlock they got one at 100 minutes.

Still gathering stuff for this but these are the starting numbers and all that.

Keep in mind, the above chart indicates a private study (something by regular players) of 32 players. The first row of numbers is the number of players who received a weapon, and the second row of numbers is the amount of minutes.

 

[sokO]

These numbers are after the changes last night; these numbers are not indicative of anything in the past week or two. I understand previously there was a larger gap for some people but that's been fixed, apparently, and part of why I posted this here is to hopefully get more samples from a wider audience.

There is, apparently, no requirement other than time played, so far as our testing has gone. This is from people who have timed it in their own idle servers (populated and solo) and people who have been using a specific program for it, so if there is anything special going on, we're unaware of it.

Indeed, more stuff to look at.

 

[sokO]

minutes played	        chance you have gotten at least 1 unlock since you started playing
25	                0.125     (12.5%)
50	                0.625     (62.5%)
75	                0.6875    (68.8%)
100	                0.90625   (90.1%)
125	                0.96875   (96.9%)

More interesting graphs.

Another side link worth reading regarding a "hidden" update. Here.

 

[midget31394]

Also, I think connection has something to do with this as well. On a UK server I got 7/8 of my weapons. Each weapoin within aroun 20 mins of playing on EU, 2 days on US.

(Im Euro if you didnt guess xD)

(too bad most of those weps were dups as well)

 

[Goretex]

I honestly think it goes by round beginning/ending.... well it did when the system first came out.

I played pipeline and got an item every 20 minutes, and when I went to blackmesa I would get one every 2+hours. I always received an item at the beginning/end of a round.

 

[b0bfath3r]

Well, if this is accurate, I fall into the 2+ hr group.... Actually more like the 3+ hr group.

 

[-HavoC-!]

It seems somewhat accurate from what I have been paying attention to . I generally unlock an item/items with an hour or so . Then it seems to fall off unless you really spend several hours on end playing .

So as far as the time frame between said hours does make some sense .

 

[Xzero]

I got 32.9 hours over the last 2 weeks, not a single unlock. ;(

 

[Stevontoast]

I got 32.9 hours over the last 2 weeks, not a single unlock. ;(

Fail
played around 40 hours
Got a load of unlocks most old ones...

 

[Zero711]

They threw the Milestones back in, so this really only affects the hats as the achievement servers will open back up. I'm guessing we can still find by the random anyway. Nice find.

 

[sokO]

This system still works with hats. Bump.

 

[FreakingHell]

there's only one person in the samples who has gone over 125 minutes (2h+) without an unlock

That should have me in samples. I didn't get my first item until ~20hrs. Since then I've gotten 6, but nothing new.

But anyways, cool info to know.

 

[Darth]

The last week, ive been playing like 2/3 hours each day, and i only got 1 new unlock, but like 3 old unlocks I didnt get an unlock every 20 mins either.

 

[zippy258]

I will try playing for a couple of hours...

I hope they come out with the probability of getting hats.

 

[Combat Medic]

I played for at least 2 hours since the patch and so far got nothing old or new.

 

[Vandall]

They threw the Milestones back in, so this really only affects the hats as the achievement servers will open back up. I'm guessing we can still find by the random anyway. Nice find.

Wait, wut?

 

[Ballzac]

pretty sure ive played 3-4 hours in a sitting without gettin sometihng before

 

[Artinz]

I've played around 25 hours since the update, 4 unlocks. The stats given seem highly innacurate, I think there is a kind of exponential growth going on here, with certain fluctuation between times. Meaning, the more unlocks you get, the less likely you are to get other ones, but with some degree of change. I could make a mathematical equation if you like ;D

 

[Tomain]

I'm not entirely sure that this works... I've played on a couple of servers for extended periods of time (admittedly, hours at a time usually) and aside from a single instance, I've NEVER gotten a random drop of any kind. Not before or after the patch. I'm not complaining, just saying that this isn't necessarily a method that works for everyone. Part of it may be class and or damage based too, because I usually play medic and typically do a minimal amount of damage.

 

[DRaGZ]

Well, none of this really matters anymore considering everything is unlockable with achievements now.

Hooray beer!