Question for pro-traders

Believer

Believer

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(This particularly concerns those of you with unusual hats...)

I have just begun to get into the trading scene and bought my first Bill's the other day through SOP.

My question is this: is it reasonable to suspect that given enough key purchases and unboxings, I could uncrate an unusual? I just want to be reasonably sure before I start spending money that I can recoop the costs by selling/trading unusuals.
 
I would throw reason right out the window if you are planning on unboxing with your keys. Instead what you should do if you really want an unusual is what I did and trade keys for items. I spent about $60 on keys and traded them for items like bills hat and buds and sometimes you get a much better hat with a great effect for cheaper than you spend. Then I used those to get better items until I got my burning billy. Only problem is buds have now increased in cost as well as bills hat so it may take more than that much to get a good unusual with a good effect.
 
Believer said:
(This particularly concerns those of you with unusual hats...)

I have just begun to get into the trading scene and bought my first Bill's the other day through SOP.

My question is this: is it reasonable to suspect that given enough key purchases and unboxings, I could uncrate an unusual? I just want to be reasonably sure before I start spending money that I can recoop the costs by selling/trading unusuals.
Click to expand...


how to make profit:

(1) buy earbuds. Since you're willing to spend money, this will really suit you. Buds sky rocket in price. I got my first buds by trading for 9.5'ish keys...wasn't too long ago. Now they go for what 25 keys?

Heak I sold 5 buds couple of weeks ago for $30 each. Next morning the same buyer was buying them for $32 each. Had I waited couple of days more I could have sold 'em for $35 each.

Bills also go up in price but they don't go as fast as buds. 2 bills used to buy 1 bud...now i think 1 buds is worth 3 bills :laugh:

Also, Unusuals are going down because of dupes and buds going up.

(2) See a game with decent promo? Get it! It doesn't matter if it's $30 game because if the promos are good you can usually sell genuine item for value more than the game's price :laugh:

take genuine scarf for example...goes for 1-2 buds I think.
genuine foot is going for pretty good deal too.

(3) Unboxing is pure luck. Accept that for what it is. However, statically speaking, on average, 1 unusual is unboxed per 50 crates or so. This does NOT mean that you'll get an unusual if you unbox 50 crates at once.

(4) speaking of unboxing. Open crates that are HOT. You'll usually get your key's worth right back at u. For instance, the day crate #38 came out, most of the items inside the crate went for over a key. Strange dead ringer went for 4 keys and even over that. Strange SMG was 3 keys or even more. Strange quick fix was idk 1-2 keys.

(5) unbox #13 and #14 crates. black/white paints are worth 2 keys straight up. lime/pink are 1 keys straight. snaggle is 2 ref and fez is 1 key. also, above paints are sky rocketing in price. it sucks when you unbox a weapon though :(

(6) something new i'm trying out: collect craft hats...

and go on a hat crafting rampage when a huge update comes in. if you're early, i.e. you're able to craft within a hour or so of the update hitting...you should be able to get items within #100. first 100 numbers usually go bills/buds. If you end up crafting something like say the last breath...then boy you're lucky as well.

this is a huge risk huge reward. generally, crafting hats to make another is a bad idea. however, when a huge update hits, say with 20 hats or so....the changes of you getting profit out of it is pretty good.

(7) if you've enough earbuds go to tf2p and put a trade saying "buying unusual at 50%" :laugh: i've never tried this but apparently there are people who're desperate and they could sell you stuff for lot cheaper.

(8) always turn your items into promos, particularly in buds.


hope that helps.
 
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Me not profession trader, but there was a post a few days back (or maybe it was a week) with a link to a an unboxing simulator. It can give you and idea of how many keys it MIGHT take to unbox an unusual (make sure to try out different crates)
 
I basically just trade unusuals while making profit, my first unbox was a villains veil burning(worth alot), i slowly have traded it down with other unusuals and buds, a lot of the buds i have which traded for keys. Currently I'm at a blizzard tyrants helm(worth about 10-11 buds), 1 bud, 1 bills, and some low craft stuff, but i have unboxed so many crates since my veil unbox i can tell my next unusual is near. But i can help you with unusual price checks. I have already helped Mr.OneShot work 1 bud up to a 7 bud unusual, Telepath change 1 bills and like 15 ref up to a 1.5 bud unusual, and now I'm working with rocker to work his 1.5 bud unusual and 1 bud up. Just message me on steam if you need a price check.
 
Ludicrous said:
I unboxed all my unusual hats :P
Click to expand...

Lucky dog, you. :P

Noblewarrior said:
I basically just trade unusuals while making profit, my first unbox was a villains veil burning(worth alot), i slowly have traded it down with other unusuals and buds, a lot of the buds i have which traded for keys. Currently I'm at a blizzard tyrants helm(worth about 10-11 buds), 1 bud, 1 bills, and some low craft stuff, but i have unboxed so many crates since my veil unbox i can tell my next unusual is near. But i can help you with unusual price checks. I have already helped Mr.OneShot work 1 bud up to a 7 bud unusual, Telepath change 1 bills and like 15 ref up to a 1.5 bud unusual, and now I'm working with rocker to work his 1.5 bud unusual and 1 bud up. Just message me on steam if you need a price check.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the advice and offer, Noble. I'll be sure to hit you up!
 
For trading...SOP is okay, but you'll get better results somewhere like tf2outpost


Instead of buying Keys from the Mannco store...people sell them for as low as $1.39 pretty regularly.
[A - B = C] where A=(keys x 2.49) B=(keys x 1.39) and C=(profit)
 
Also a good tip is that before you do any unusual trade check with multiple people to make sure your not getting scammed or if its a good trade.
 
I would say not to waste your money on unboxing you would probably get a better change trading for an unusual
 
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