The University of California study on "the next big one"
A study completed by Yuri Fialko[3] has demonstrated that the San Andreas fault has been stressed to a level sufficient for the next "big one," as it is commonly called, that is, an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater. The study also concluded that the risk of a large earthquake may be increasing faster than researchers had previously believed. Fialko also emphasized in his study that, while the San Andreas Fault had experienced massive earthquakes in 1857 at its central section and in 1906 at its northern segment (the great San Francisco earthquake), the southern section of the fault has not seen a similar rupture in at least 300 years.
If such an earthquake were to occur, Fialko's study stated, it would result in substantial damage to Palm Springs and a number of other cities in San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial counties in California, and Mexicali municipality in Baja California. Such an event would be felt throughout much of Southern California, including densely populated areas of metropolitan Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego and Tijuana, Baja California.
"The information available suggests that the fault is ready for the next big earthquake but exactly when the triggering will happen and when the earthquake will occur we cannot tell," Fialko said. "It could be tomorrow or it could be 10 years or more from now," he concluded in September of 2005.