So with the new hats,

The way it works is that you have a 50% or so chance of receiving ANY item every 25 minutes.

Futhermore, you have a .05% chance of receiving a hat when you get a drop.
No, it doesn't for hats. Hats are on a separate, longer drop timer, because someone has a record of getting Jarate, then a hat 10 minutes later. And it's not a 50% chance to get an item every 25 minutes, people don't get an item every hour, its usually about 2-3 hours in between.
 
No, your math is off.
0.05% chance means if you play for 2,000 minutes you'll get one hat on average.

Playing time: 141.1 hours past 2 weeks (alone, never mind the time i've played since they brought out the hats)

141.1 x 60 = 8460. 8460/2000 = 4.23 hats OR 0 hats. Guess which one I got?
 
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Playing time: 141.1 hours past 2 weeks (alone, never mind the time i've played since they brought out the hats)

141.1 x 60 = 8460. 8460/2000 = 4.23 hats OR 0 hats. Guess which one I got?

No hats :P
I got my first hat (Ye Olde Baker Boy) after over 100 hours of gameplay.
 
No, it doesn't for hats. Hats are on a separate, longer drop timer, because someone has a record of getting Jarate, then a hat 10 minutes later. And it's not a 50% chance to get an item every 25 minutes, people don't get an item every hour, its usually about 2-3 hours in between.

Actually it's relatively commonly known it's 1 in 3 change every 25 minutes. A 1 in 3 chance would be equivalent to an item every 1 1/2 hours on average.

http://www.sourceop.com/modules.php?name=Forums&file=viewtopic&t=1627

It's noted that with the new hats, the chance of getting one is exactly the same, however the chance of getting the hat you want is much lower.
 
Has anyone noticed if you tend to get hats of the same class or different classes with the new update?

Haven't found any hats, but when I play as spy, I seem to get a lot of kritzkriegs... Don't ask me why or how, but I think I got six in a couple of days, and only a random weapon or two in the same amount of time. Maybe backstabbing fully charged medics raises your chances :D

Also, I don't think that anybody has received multiple hats since the update. If anyone has by playing normally, I'm jealous. The fedora used to be the must have for me, but now I want the camera beard :drool: It's a camera AND a beard! "Perfect for infiltrating lumber yards, Canada, and strongman competitions."
 
Don't forget that the amount you play affects your drop rate. For instance, I didn't play all summer and when I first started playing again, I got about 6 (old) weapons in a matter of a couple of hours. Now that I am back and playing normally, I get about 1 item every 5 hours.

There is a tf2 blog post about it on the official site around the time the drop system came out.
 
Whatever, I'm just happy I FINALLY got my Officer's Ushanka for the Heavy. Seriously, just stick it out, and once you get your first, nothing really matters anymore. :biggrin:
 
I did some data collection from drunken fool's program (a sample size of 150 hats) and got some reliable results:

Probability of a drop per hour: 59%
Probability of a hat per hour: 1/364
Probability of a hat per drop: 1/213

Expectation of days to get a hat: 15.2 (of play)
 
I have hundreds of hours, probably around 500, and I have yet to get a single hat. And that is just since the first hats' release. I have never idled or used a program for it either. I actually rarely ever get items anymore as well. I think i've gotten 5 items dropped total since the most recent update. 3 low level medic items and 2 jarates.
 
I did some data collection from drunken fool's program (a sample size of 150 hats) and got some reliable results:

Probability of a drop per hour: 59%
Probability of a hat per hour: 1/364
Probability of a hat per drop: 1/213

Expectation of days to get a hat: 15.2 (of play)

360 hours per hat. Ridiculous.
 
lol i just got a hat for the demoman while playing and i bought tf2 like a week or two ago, feel free to hate me
 
with the new hats, your chance of getting one specific hat lowers, while the chance of getting a hat remains the same -_-. TWO FROS AND A BATTER HELMET RAGE
also the chance of hats grows slowly every 100 hours you play, but at 800 hours you are at the 90% chance range. so you have to REALLY UNLUCKY to not get a hat within 800 hours of gameplay :D.
 

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