Golden Wrench Formula

Q

QuickSkope

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Jun 21, 2010
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I know there is one, since Drunken F00l and many others a sourceOP have gotten it and predicted times.

Stats (for wrench 22 and later)

Average time between drops: 01h:00m:17s (3617 seconds)

Standard deviation: 00h:59m:53s (3593.6104 seconds) 50% confidence interval:

average ?00h:06m:32s (392.9154 seconds) 90% confidence interval: average

?00h:15m:58s (958.9702 seconds) 95% confidence interval: average

?00h:19m:02s (1142.6028 seconds) 99% confidence interval: average

?00h:25m:01s (1501.7065 seconds)


Next drop time should be 10:12:75

10:12:75 is= to 10:12 and 3/4 of a minute

10:12: 3/4= 10:12: 45

Speculation, but if it holds, I may have an Algorythm for it :)

Wrench #66 just happened, at 10:10, so im close, il try another algorythm
 
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Yes, but you can use it to find it, and I just found that one to about 2 minutes close.

Also, drunken isnt gonna tell you there is a formula, hes gonna save it for him and hist friends, and only tell it to people he thinks worthy.
 
QuickSkope said:
Also, drunken isnt gonna tell you there is a formula, hes gonna save it for him and hist friends, and only tell it to people he thinks worthy.
Click to expand...

Warning! Tin foil hats are known to increase reception of specific frequencies of the radio spectrum which through sheer chance are reserved for US Government use: http://people.csail.mit.edu/rahimi/helmet/

:D

I don't think there is a formula. I do think there's favoritism, though. Valve has many times in the past poked their own "random" system in the eye in order to get desired results (see the Demoman/Solider Gunboats scandal).

As the self proclaimed chief of the QQ faction, I'll rail loudly against favoritism when found. And I'll fully begrudge those who get numbered wrenches. Especially if they aren't in eGO. However, I don't believe there is some super secret Al Gore Rhythm to get gold wrenches. The actual win times are too variable to use the average.

They're using the technique most online contests use: you don't get a random roll every time you craft; they've randomly picked times, and the first person to craft after that time gets the wrench. This was used in the McDonald's online Monopoly contest, for example. It's the preferred method when you need a steady stream of random winners on schedule. Valve releases update information every 25 wrenches, but still labels their update pages in days. That's 25 wrenches a day*. Something you can guarantee with the random-time method, but not the random-roll method.

Or, as Nerf Now says it better and with less TL;DR:

335


* Note to the math challenged: 25 wrenches a day / 24 hours a day means an average of a wrench an hour. This is not magic, it's mustache science.
 
Get this done and post it for all of us!

Also, in GMT time too!
 
He is right there should be a Golden Wrench drop about every hour or so. Since its about to hit 1 o clock here i think ima craft some stuff xD. Lets see if i get lucky
 
Lawl, I was thinking about that.

Also 3 times for you guys :), since I cant play :(

1:39

2:02

2:46


Those are the ones ive calculaited, and I think there good give or take 2 minutes.

Im getting more, Again, this coulld be totally off, so just try and craft during those times.


EDIT: exactly what I thought, the wrench was crafted at: July 7, 3:37:56 pm

Thats 2 minutes off.

EDIT2: I forgot to convert the first one into your time from mine, mine is 9 min behind, so im spot on :).

Edit3: 3rd one was good.
 
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Im working on some, but I have to go to Swimming soon.

3:18

3:40

3:55

4:18


All give or take 2 minutes, and could still be wrong, but the others seam to work fine.

Im so bummed I cant play today, or id have it :( I doubt they will have any drops tomorrow so, :(


P.S all of these times are 2 hours behind the ones on the TF2stats.net ones, reason is time zones.

EG: 3:18 = 5: 18
 
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alright, im sorry if it doesnt work out for you, but probably others are gonna get this too, and ist not really totaly proven, so, il just leave it at that.

P.S Drunken_F00l got VAC banned :)
 
QuickSkope said:
alright, im sorry if it doesnt work out for you, but probably others are gonna get this too, and ist not really totaly proven, so, il just leave it at that.

P.S Drunken_F00l got VAC banned :)
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Its alright. I'm doing this at my own risk.

But DF got VAC banned? Really? Was it because of this?
 
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